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12/23/09The need to combat climate change has moved to the top of the global agenda. As world leaders work to provide a successor agreement to the aging Kyoto Protocol, this is a critical opportunity for forward-looking leaders in the MENA region to start preparing national strategies for the low-carbon future and to formulate their approach to providing input on the shape of these global agreements.
The MENA region has a number of priorities that should factor into its contributions to climate change policy. First, it must take into account its need to continue along their economic trajectory: Many activities that are crucial to a country’s modernization—the building of infrastructure, for instance—can be carbon-intensive. Additionally, of course, climate change and the world’s efforts to combat it present risks for MENA countries with economies that rely on traditional fossil fuels. Finally, there is a risk that protectionist approaches to international trade will emerge as a way to force nations to adopt low-carbon practices. Some advanced-economy nations subject to stringent emissions rules have suggested that they may impose carbon tariffs to protect sectors and companies facing competition from nations or regions without restrictions on emissions. The implementation of such tariffs could significantly limit or devalue exports from carbon-intensive economies, damaging economic development in these nations.
But in addition to avoiding the negative impacts that could result from changes in climate change policy, MENA countries can also seek out the benefits. For instance, the clean development mechanism established in the Kyoto Protocol gives MENA countries the opportunity to earn emission reduction credits and sell them to advanced nations, generating substantial funds. Any new climate treaty is also likely to include a centralized funding mechanism, which could be a significant source of capital for policies, programs, and initiatives that contribute to the sustainable development of the region.
Apart from the financial aspects of any emissions reductions, the rapid rollout of low-carbon technologies and best practices, mostly from advanced economies, will also play a major role in reducing emissions. The MENA region can capitalize on this influx of new technologies to develop its own capabilities and meet its goal of becoming a technology exporter in some areas. Finally, MENA countries can use their emissions reductions to generate international goodwill and political capital and help other initiatives of national importance.
All of these issues mean that MENA countries, to the greatest extent possible, should participate in the discussions that will create a new framework to alleviate climate change. Their governments should understand what the coming changes mean for them and devise appropriate strategies and initiatives accordingly. In order for the MENA region to benefit from the development of a new framework for global climate policy, its governments need to be certain that they have a seat at the table—and that they are making efforts in good faith in their own countries.
As part of the new architecture, each MENA country will need to prepare a national low-carbon development strategy. Governments must first understand where their countries’ emissions are coming from, and create projections of how much those emissions will grow over time if they continue with business as usual. The next step is to determine where they can reduce emissions, assess the feasibility and practicality of the abatement opportunities, and prioritize them. Finally, they should identify the appropriate institutional settings for implementing the nation’s low-carbon development strategy, including the use of international funding.
In the years since the Kyoto Protocol was developed, the MENA region has made significant economic advances. In the coming years, MENA countries will face the challenge of ensuring the sustainability of this growth for future generations. In this context, they have a unique opportunity between COP15 in 2009 and COP16 in 2010 to make their voices heard and start to prepare for their low-carbon future. They should not let this opportunity pass them by.
